Daily Murders in Mexico Decline Thirty-Seven Percent Under President Sheinbaum, As per Official Figures

The average figure of per-day killings per month in Mexico has dropped by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by recent administrative statistics. But, public safety specialists have advised that homicide figures could fail to point to better national security.

Marked Decline in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an average of almost 55 homicides a day in the month of November compared with almost 87 when the President took the leadership in September of last year. This information was provided by the chief of the nation's federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that have been recorded during these months is extremely significant,” the President stated, adding that the previous month the smallest figure of murders were registered for any single November in the last 10 years.

Recent Background and Official Strategy

Fierce drug cartel rivalries, alongside the government’s heavily militarised efforts to combat the cartels, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in recent years. The figure hit a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's national statistics agency.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate over 4x higher than the US. From that point, killings have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has credited her public safety plan for an ostensibly steeper drop in homicides this year.

At a press conference in August, the head of state said: “There is a strategy, we have tracking of the strategy, and there is specific monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The plan works. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The main elements of Sheinbaum’s security plan encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Enhanced coordination between various departments.

Analyst Caution and Data Concerns

But, security experts urged caution that using homicide numbers to draw a conclusion of pacification was flawed. This is particularly true in light of the increase in different crimes such as forced disappearances.

“That would be excellent information if this was a drop, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the homicide data and think: ‘Oh well, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

As reported by the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the identical period the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain states have increased by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer valid for estimating the situation of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the ability or the will to accurately identify and classify corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month means of daily homicides was additionally concerning because it might obscure days when there were especially high numbers of killings.

“Using the per-day mean makes high peaks of violent crime invisible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

An area where the government can highlight the success of its safety plan is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 individuals were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for major offenses, according to official figures. More than 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s very in political terms profitable,” said Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Frustration

However despite these actions, Mexico continues to be beset by severe violence, with several regions in the throes of cartel-fueled conflict. Last month there was a high-profile killing of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors assassinated in the last year.

Weeks after, thousands of protesters demonstrated in Mexico City and across the country to express their anger at graft and narco-violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a way to create a story of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s very potent, socially it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas remarked.