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Well. From one perspective, the nation's protracted bid to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to put on the world's biggest environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have brought tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures really wanted the bid to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. While the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to look at it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively combat the environmental emergency.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had backed the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Ankara declined to withdraw. The term "disruption" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turkish government with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered close to the Russian leader. Several nations feared a summit hindered from the top if his administration led the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but multilateral action has empirically made a difference in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This is significant. While certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks say it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and achieve an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society is essential at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.